What To Look For From This Week’s Fed Meeting
What To Look For From This Week’s Fed Meeting You may be hearing a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and how their actions will impact the housing market right now. Here’s why. The Fed meets again this week to decide the next step with the Federal Funds Rate. That's how much it costs banks to borrow from each other. Now, that’s not the same thing as setting mortgage rates, but mortgage rates can be influenced through this process. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you may be wondering about the downstream impact and when mortgage rates will come down. Here’s a quick rundown of what you need to know to help you anticipate what’ll happen next. The Fed’s decisions are guided by these three key economic indicators: The Direction of Inflation How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding The Unemployment Rate Let’s take a look at each one. 1. The Direction of Inflation You’ve likely noticed prices for everyday goods and services seem to be higher each time you make a purchase at the store. That’s because of inflation – and the Fed wants to see that number come back down so it’s closer to their 2% target. Right now, it’s still higher than that. But despite a little volatility, inflation has generally been moving in the right direction. It gradually came down over the past two years, and is holding fairly steady right now (see graph below): The path of inflation – though still not at their target rate – is a big part of the reason why the Fed will likely lower the Fed Funds Rate again this week to make borrowing less expensive, while still ensuring the economy continues to grow. 2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding The Fed is also keeping an eye on how many new jobs are added to the economy each month. They want job growth to slow down a bit before they cut the Federal Funds Rate further. When fewer jobs are created, it shows the economy is still doing well, but gradually cooling off—exactly what they’re aiming for. And that’s what’s happening right now. Reuters says: “Any doubts the Federal Reserve will go ahead with an interest-rate cut . . . fell away on Friday after a government report showed U.S. employers added fewer workers in October than in any month since December 2020.” Employers are still hiring, but just not as many positions right now. This shows the job market is starting to slow down after running hot for a while, which is what the Fed wants to see. 3. The Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate shows the percentage of people who want jobs but can’t find them. A low unemployment rate means most people are working, which is great. However, it can push inflation higher because more people working means more spending—and that makes prices go up. Many economists consider any unemployment rate below 5% to be as close to full employment as is realistically possible. In the most recent report, unemployment is sitting at 4.1% (see graph below): Unemployment this low shows the labor market is still strong even as fewer jobs were added to the economy. That’s the balance the Fed is looking for. What Does This Mean Going Forward? Overall, the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see – and that’s why experts say they will likely cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter of a percentage point this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If that expectation ends up being correct, that could pave the way for mortgage rates to come down too. But that doesn’t mean they’ll fall immediately. It will take some time. Remember, the Fed doesn’t determine mortgage rates. Forecasts show mortgage rates will ease more gradually over the course of the next year as long as these economic indicators continue to move in the right direction and the Fed can continue their Federal Funds rate cuts through 2025. But a change in any one of the factors mentioned here could cause a shift in the market and in the Fed’s actions in the days and months ahead. So, brace for some volatility, and for mortgage rates to respond along the way. As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, notes: "The trajectory of rates over the coming months will be largely dependent on three key factors: (1) the performance of the labor market, (2) the outcome of the presidential election, and (3) any possible reemergence of inflationary pressure. While volatility has been the theme of mortgage rates over the past several months, we expect stability to reemerge towards the end of November and into early December." Bottom Line While the Fed’s actions play a part, economic data and market conditions are what really drive mortgage rates. As we move through the rest of 2024 and 2025, expect rates to stabilize or decline gradually, offering more certainty in what has been a volatile market.
Expect the Unexpected: Anticipating Volatility in Today’s Housing Market
Expect the Unexpected: Anticipating Volatility in Today’s Housing Market You’ve probably noticed one thing if you’re thinking about making a move: the housing market feels a bit unpredictable right now. The truth is, from home prices to mortgage rates, we’re seeing more volatility – and it’s important to understand why. At a high-level, let’s break down what’s happening and the best way to navigate it. What’s Driving Today’s Market Volatility? Factors like economic data, unemployment numbers, decisions coming out of the Federal Reserve (The Fed), and even the presidential election, are creating uncertainty right now – and uncertainty leads to market volatility. You can see that when you look at what’s happening with mortgage rates. New economic reports and other geopolitical events have an impact and can cause sudden shifts up or down, even though experts still forecast rates will come down overall. We’ve seen that effect play out recently, like when employment and inflation data get released each month. And as the markets react, these types of updates will continue to have an impact on rates moving forward. As Greg McBride, CFA, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says: “After steadily declining throughout the summer months, I expect more ups and downs to mortgage rates . . . Job market data will be closely watched as well as any clues from the Fed about the extent of upcoming interest rate cuts.” This is exactly why the projected decline in mortgage rates isn’t going to be a straight line down over the next year. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains: “Rates have shown considerable volatility lately, and may continue to do so . . . Overall, we still expect a downward long-term mortgage rate trend.” Plus, home prices and the number of homes on the market vary dramatically depending on where you’re looking to buy or sell, which makes it even harder to get a clear picture. In some areas, home prices are rising and inventory is tight, while in others, there are more homes available and it’s leading to more moderate pricing shifts. As all of this unfolds, understanding what’s happening will help you make the right decisions, whether that’s buying or selling. And there’s one easy way to get that information: from a professional. The Importance of Partnering with a Pro While the road ahead may have some bumps and unexpected turns, you don’t have to go it alone. A great agent will keep you up to date on the latest market developments, guide you through any shifts, and help you make smart decisions based on your goals. For example, as mortgage rates change, professionals (like your agent and a trusted lender) will explain how the shifts impact what you can reasonably plan for in your monthly payment. This will help you see how even a small change in rates can impact your bottom line – that way you don’t lose sight of the big picture even as shifts happen here and there. And since conditions can vary significantly from one neighborhood to another, your agent will also help you understand the specifics of your market—whether it’s how to navigate competition with other buyers, the number of homes available, or what’s happening with local home prices. Their insights and expertise will help you adapt to any movement in the market. Bottom Line The housing market may be experiencing some shifts, but don’t let it stop you from making your move. With the support of an experienced real estate agent and a trusted lender, you’ll be ready to navigate the changes and make the most of the opportunities that come your way. Let’s turn any uncertainty into your advantage, helping you move forward with confidence.
Is a Fixer Upper Right for You?
Is a Fixer Upper Right for You? Looking to buy a home but feeling like almost everything is out of reach? Here’s the thing. There’s still a way to become a homeowner, even when affordability seems like a huge roadblock – and it might be with a fixer upper. Let’s dive into why buying a fixer upper could be your ticket to homeownership and how you can make it work. What Is a Fixer Upper? A fixer upper is a home that’s in livable condition but needs some work. The amount of work varies by home – some may need cosmetic updates like wallpaper removal and new flooring, while others might require more extensive repairs like replacing a roof or updating plumbing. Because they need some elbow grease, these homes typically have a lower price point, based on local market value. In fact, a survey from StorageCafe explains that fixer uppers generally cost about 29% less than move-in-ready homes. And that’s why, according to a recent survey, more buyers are considering homes that need a little extra work right now (see below): If you're looking for an option to get your foot in the door, and you're willing to roll up your sleeves and do a bit of work, a house with untapped potential may be a good option. Tips for Buying a Home That Needs Some Work Before you buy a home that may need a makeover, here are a few things to keep in mind: Choose a Good Location: You can repair a house, but you can’t change where it is. Make sure the home is in a neighborhood you like or one with increasing property values and a growing number of local amenities. This way, even after you spend money fixing it up, the house will be worth more later. Budget for Surprises: Fixing up a house can take more time and money than you might think. Make sure you save room in your budget for unexpected repairs or other unknowns that might come up while you're working on the house. Get a Home Inspection: Before you buy, hire an inspector to check out the house. They’ll help you determine the necessary repairs, so you don’t end up with expensive surprises later. Plan Your Priorities: When deciding what to tackle first, it helps to categorize your goals. Think of your home in three ways: the must-haves (essential repairs), the nice-to-haves (upgrades that would make life easier), and the dream-state features (luxuries you can add later). This will help you prioritize and stick to your budget. Remember, the perfect home is the one you perfect after buying it. By starting with a fixer upper, you have the opportunity to customize a home to your liking while saving money on the initial purchase price. With careful planning, budgeting, and a little bit of vision, you can turn a house that needs some love into your perfect home. Real estate agents are great at finding homes with potential. They know the local market and can guide you to homes where smart upgrades can add value. With their help, you’re more likely to find a house that fits your total budget and has room for worthwhile improvements. Bottom Line In today’s market, where the cost of homeownership can be intimidating, finding a move-in-ready home that fits your budget can feel like a real challenge. But if you’re open to putting in a little work, you can transform a fixer upper into your ideal home over time. Let’s explore what’s possible and find a place that'll work for you.
How Do Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market?
How Do Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market? Every four years, as presidential elections draw near, many prospective homebuyers and sellers wonder how the changing political landscape might affect the housing market. While elections can create a sense of uncertainty, history shows that their impact on real estate tends to be small and short-lived. Here’s a closer look at what to expect from the housing market during and after an election year. Does an Election Slow Down the Housing Market? Election years tend to slow home sales as potential buyers adopt a “wait-and-see” approach. Data reveals that from October to November, home sales typically decrease by 9.8% in a regular year. In an election year, that drop is even more pronounced, with a 15% decrease. This year, 23% of first-time buyers are holding off until after the election to make their purchase. This temporary dip in demand can create unique opportunities for those willing to buy during the election season. Do More Homes Sell After an Election? Yes, home sales tend to rebound following an election. Statistics show that home sales have increased 82% of the time in the year after an election. For 2025, experts are forecasting a rise in home sales from 4.6 million to 5.2 million homes. This increase indicates that as the uncertainty around elections fades, buyers and sellers regain confidence and return to the market. What Happens to Mortgage Rates in an Election Year? Election years often come with some financial volatility, which can impact mortgage rates. Historically, mortgage rates have decreased from July to November in election years 72% of the time. This year has been no exception, with mortgage rates reaching as low as 6.08% in September, down from nearly 8% last fall. As a result, lower mortgage rates may encourage more buyers to enter the market, even during uncertain times. However, it’s essential to remember that these rates are influenced by broader economic factors beyond just the election. What Happens to Home Prices After an Election? One of the most reassuring trends for homeowners is that, historically, home prices tend to rise after an election. In fact, prices have increased 88% of the time in the year following an election. This year, national home prices are projected to continue their upward trend, with an anticipated 2.5% increase in 2025. For both homeowners and prospective buyers, this trend is a reminder that the housing market has a track record of resilience, even in politically turbulent times. The Bottom Line While presidential elections can bring temporary fluctuations, the housing market typically stabilizes quickly. Buyers and sellers who stay informed and take advantage of timing trends may find unique opportunities amidst the election-year uncertainty. Overall, elections have a small, short-term impact on housing, with the market showing a strong tendency to bounce back.
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